Mathematical modeling of dynamics behavior of terrorism and control

Document Type: Research articles


Department of Mathematics, University of Ilorin, Nigeria.



Terrorism is generally understood to be the use of threat or extra normal violence to gain ideological reasons and personal benefit. In this paper, a mathematical modelling of terrorism with military strategies and rehabilitation of terrorists was constructed. The model is developed to control the spread of terrorist ideologies in the society and suitable to describe terrorist group. The population is divided into six compartments: $S(t)$, $I(t)$, $T(t)$, $T_L(t)$, $T_S(t)$ and $Q_T(t)$. Furthermore, the basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is also calculated if $R_0 < 1$ means the terror-organization is nearly eradicated and if $R_0 > 1$ means the number of terrorists are high where the terrorist are endemic to the population. The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters is the recruitment pool of the terrorist from susceptible to moderate $(\beta_{1})$ and terrorist move to detention facilities due to counter-terrorist activities $(b)$. The least parameter is the probability at which terrorist become militancy leaders $(k\alpha)$. $(\beta_{1})$ and $(b)$ are parameters counter terrorist need to be target. The finding shows that the military/dialogue strategies are to be used while military strategies alone should not be used if the number of terrorists is below a certain reproduction number