Rainfall forecast of Kashan in Iran using time series models

Document Type : Research Articles

Authors

1 Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

2 Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.

3 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Loma Linda University, USA

10.22080/cjms.2024.22227.1598

Abstract

The most important part of the hydrological cycle is precipitation. The study aimed to forecast rainfall with a time series model. Many studies have been done, but we want to predict annual rainfall in Kashan. Annual rainfall of 53 years was collected from Kashan (office of Meteorology) from spring 1967 to winter 2019. We predicted the amount of annual rainfall from 2020 to 2023. The method of data analysis is that the time series models are fitted to the data using statistical package for the social science (SPSS) statistical software (also, we used R and MINITAB software). The average annual rainfall is 133.70 mm with a standard deviation of 49.32 mm. The best model is ARIMA (0,0,1). In the selected model, AIC and BIC are equal to 564.64 and 570.55, respectively. Our prediction results show a significant drop in rainfall in these four years. Since Kashan is one of the arid and semi-arid regions, we will face the problem of water shortage, so water consumption must be saved.

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