Modeling the Role of Environment and Asymptomatic Carriers in Infectious Disease Transmission

Peter, Olumuyiwa James; Ojo, Mayowa M.; Balogun, Ghaniyyat Bolanle; Bolarin, Gbolahan; Dere, Zainab O

doi:10.22080/cjms.2026.30871.1794

Modeling the Role of Environment and Asymptomatic Carriers in Infectious Disease Transmission

Document Type : Research Articles

Authors

¹ Department of Mathematical and Computer Science University of Medical Science, Ondo, Nigeria

² University of South Africa

³ University of Ilorin

⁴ Fedeal University of technology Minna, Nigeria

⁵ Florida State University, Tallahassee, 32306, FL, USA

10.22080/cjms.2026.30871.1794

Abstract

Understanding the transmission mechanisms of infectious disease is critical for developing effective control and prevention techniques. This paper proposes a deterministic compartmental model that accounts for both direct and indirect transmission channels, including asymptomatic carriers and environmental reservoirs. The model expands on the classic SEIR framework by including compartments for asymptomatic individuals and environmental pathogen concentration. We conduct qualitative evaluations to define disease-free and endemic equilibria, and use the next-generation matrix approach to get the basic reproduction number $R_0$. The model highlights the roles of three major transmission pathways: asymptomatic, symptomatic, and environmental. Stability study indicates that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Sensitivity analysis employing Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) finds the parameters that have the greatest influence on disease transmission. Numerical simulation results show that asymptomatic transmission and environmental pollution play significant roles in maintaining outbreaks. The findings highlight the importance of comprehensive public health interventions that address hidden transmission routes, such as improving asymptomatic detection and environmental hygiene, in order to effectively reduce disease burden.

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